This experiment uses ChatGPT4 to analyze a complex and ambiguous political and military conflict using a multi-turn conversation and a staged prompt technique, where I build and refine a knowledge base through a series of prompts.

Notes/Disclaimers: I am a technology researcher, not in any way a foreign affairs expert. I do not have a side in the conflict. I do not follow the news. My understanding of the conflict and any specific aspects may be incorrect. I do not support the “current thing” (and probably do not know what it is). The discussion was a point-in-time discussion as of 10/31/23 and does not reflect any knowledge that comes to light after that. This is an exercise in using AI superintelligence to try to make progress on a problem I would not in any way be qualified to approach on my own.

Link: https://chat.openai.com/share/3e94f4d3-76bb-4465-bd3d-cbd8c6fb093d

*DR: I would like you to help negotiate an extremely complex political situation. In this discussion you should act as an international relations expert. Here is the issue: Hamas terrorists have invaded Israel from Gaza and killed several hundred Israeli citizens. In return, the Israeli government headed by Bibi Netanyahu has publicly declared it will "end Hamas". They have told civilians to leave Gaza (which is practically impossible as neighboring Arab states refused to take them in) and extensively bombed Gaza and are pursing bloody and costly urban warfare to take Gaza. There are some questions about how much the Israeli government knew about the attack in advance, as the Gaza border is extensively surveilled, Israel has advanced intelligence, and Israeli officers who have served on the border say an undetected invasion of this sort is not possible without Israel detecting it in advance. The Netanyahu government was very unpopular before the attack and on the verge of collapse.

Please formulate questions that you think would help clarify. After that, we will then analyze the situation, and then finally proceed to form suggestions on how to resolve the conflict. However, first begin with any questions you think are important.*

ChatGPT

Understanding the nuances and intricacies of this hypothetical situation is essential for formulating an effective response. Let's start by identifying key areas that need clarification:

1. Initial Attack Dynamics:
   • What was the purported objective or reason Hamas provided for this large-scale invasion?
   • Were there any significant changes or events in the weeks leading up to the attack which might have triggered it?
   • What was the nature of the Hamas invasion? Was it a series of guerrilla attacks, or was it a conventional military-style assault?
2. Israeli Intelligence:
   • How substantial is the evidence that suggests the Israeli government knew of the attack in advance?
   • Were there any intelligence failures, or were there deliberate decisions to allow certain activities to transpire?
   • Are there other sources, apart from the Israeli officers, that corroborate the claim that such an invasion couldn't have been undetected?
3. Israeli Political Climate:
   • How unpopular was the Netanyahu government prior to the attack? What were the main reasons for its unpopularity?
   • Were there any previous incidents or decisions made by the Netanyahu government that were perceived as provocative or as escalations?
   • How did the political opposition in Israel respond to the invasion and subsequent actions taken by Netanyahu's government?
4. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza:
   • Given the neighboring Arab states' refusal to accept civilians from Gaza, what alternatives are available for safe evacuation?
   • What is the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza post the Israeli bombings and urban warfare?
   • Are international humanitarian organizations present and active on the ground? What are their assessments?
5. International Response:
   • How have major international players, especially key allies and foes of Israel and Palestine, reacted to the situation?
   • What role has the United Nations played so far, and what is its current stance?
   • Are there any global sanctions or restrictions imposed on Israel or Hamas due to the current situation?
6. Past Precedents and Resolutions:
   • Are there previous instances where escalations of this magnitude occurred, and how were they resolved?
   • What peace agreements or ceasefires have been attempted in the past between Israel and Hamas, and what were their outcomes?

Clarifying answers to these questions will provide a clearer picture of the situation and help formulate a strategic approach to addressing the crisis.

*DR: Here are the best available answers to the questions that I have. Understand that some may be inaccurate or incomplete, as information sources may be biased, but I will attempt to present them as factually and neutrally as possible.

1. The Hamas objective was not broadly reported in the Western media but is assumed to be some combination of: the liberation of Gaza, striking out against what they see as Israeli oppression, or provoking a violent response from Israel. There were no known notable changes or political events in the weeks before the attack. Gaza is entirely contained in a huge well-surveilled Israeli wall. The attack was a hybrid military and terrorist attack, in which huge barrages of thousands of rockets overwhelmed Israeli anti-missile defenses while Hamas launched a coordinated attack involving paragliders went over the wall while sappers used explosives to breach sections of the wall, with motorcycles and vans moving through. According to Hamas propaganda videos, some rockets were built from a section of water pipeline in secret factories, while others were likely imported from sympathetic military sources, possibly aligned governments. The targets were primarily civilian, as Hamas overran settlements and massacred and kidnapped civilians, some of whom are currently held as hostages in Gaza, although some military bases and equipment were also seized. Note that some leaders of Hamas do not live in Gaza, residing instead in foreign countries.

2. Evidence that the Israeli government knew of the attack is currently just the claims of individual Israeli officers. The Israeli government frames it as an intelligence failure. However, Israel is widely believed to have the world's best human and cyberintelligence capabilities, and the Israeli Gaza wall is widely believed to be the world's most extensively surveilled, with sensors above and below, and the alleged whistleblower officers report an elaborate and well-staffed surveillance command structure.

3. Regarding Israeli political sentiment, the New York Magazine carries an article titled "Netanyahu Is Losing the War at Home Incompetence against Hamas and indifference to Israeli suffering has the public boiling over" with this excerpted text:

begin excerpt: “The bunch of imbeciles leading the country we live in, the country where my beloved little brother was killed protecting the homeland that forgot us — not because it was inevitable but because this disgraceful government is involved in everything it should not be involved in. My beloved brother was murdered by hate-filled terrorists, but those who disgracefully opened the door for them are the Israeli government, from the minister of national security and his messianic friends — clowns who busy themselves creating violent, idiotic slogans — to the prime minister, who is doing everything in his power to disintegrate the State of Israel.”

Shay was referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government’s minister of national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, a racist provocateur elevated to high office with several other extremists to cobble together a government after the last election. That government is facing a growing chorus of criticism from all corners of Israeli society since Hamas’s surprise attack with the military caught off guard and taking hours to reach towns where terrorists massacred over 1,200 people. end excerpt:

Note that this report may be biased. Some Israeli and foreign press maintains that Netanyahu supported the rise of Hamas as a foil. I have only limited documentation on political response by Israeli opposition after the event, although the country is certainly both on a war footing and literally at war.

4. According to leaked Israeli intelligence documents believed to be genuine and to comments by Israeli government officials, the Israeli government wants Western nations such as Canada, the U.S., and others to accept the Palestinian refugees. Reaction to this proposal in the U.S. is negative, with Republican lawmakers sponsoring legislation to prevent it. Palestinians are not all Hamas supporters but are seen as problematic, since terrorists are deeply mixed into the population. Egypt, the direct Arab neighbor, is openly negative on accepting Palestinian refugees as it believes them to be destabilizing. Evacuation strategies are unclear and this will require your most creative thought. Gaza is currently shrouded by the fog of war, with information scattered and much of it likely propaganda. It is likely a humanitarian catastrophe with extensive civilian catastrophes. Israel's targeting of a civilian population constitutes "collective punishment," a war crime, and has dampened its support.

5. International players have generally split along traditionally aligned pro-Israel and anti-Israel lines. Israeli allies including the United States offer military support but suffer from unexpectedly strong criticism at home due to Israel's perceived war crimes. Islamic countries are generally critical of Israel, some strongly so, with Turkey apparently mulling over invading Israel. The conflict has spread regionally with Hezbollah attacking Israel with missiles from Lebanon and Israel bombing civilian airports in Syria that it says support these efforts (again, a war crime). The United Nations has not made significant moves.

6. Past escalations of this nature have often led to more widespread war. It is unclear to me if there have been past peaceful interventions or de-escalations of such situations, but you may know more and should consider such possible historical cases.

Given the above, please articulate your evolving thoughts before we proceed to analyze the situation.*

ChatGPT

The detailed answers you've provided offer significant insight into the complexities of this hypothetical situation. Here's a summarized breakdown of the evolving landscape:

1. Hamas Attack Dynamics:
   • The attack was a mix of both military and terrorist strategies. While the primary targets were civilians, they also targeted military bases and assets.
   • This invasion was meticulously planned, with imported and locally manufactured weapons.
   • The primary reasons, while not explicitly stated, seem to stem from long-standing grievances against perceived Israeli oppression and a strategic intent to provoke a response from Israel.
2. Israeli Intelligence and Reaction:
   • While there are whistleblowers suggesting the Israeli government had foreknowledge of the attack, it is framed officially as an intelligence failure. This brings into question the veracity of these claims, especially given Israel's renowned intelligence capabilities.
   • Netanyahu’s administration, already unpopular, is under intense scrutiny and criticism. The scale and nature of the surprise attack, especially considering the capability of the Israeli defense establishment, further strain the public’s trust.